Trump impeachment chances: Politico/Morning Consult poll edition.

The Impeach-O-Meter is a wildly subjective and speculative daily estimate of the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves office before his term ends, whether by being impeached (and convicted) or by resigning under threat of same.

Earlier Friday, Donald Trump proudly tweeted a poll that pegs his approval rating at 45 percent. This is a comically low approval rating to brag about, and as Philip Bump of the Washington Postpointed out, it’s still a big outlier from most current approval polls, which put him at about 38 percent on aggregate. Furthermore, as someone else on the internet—I forget who, but if they tweet at me @benmathislilley I will credit them—observed, other parts of the poll Trump tweeted (Politico/Morning Consult) find that majorities or pluralities of Americans believe that he is:

• Sexist (54 percent say he is, 32 percent say he isn’t)
• Racist (47 percent say he is, 39 percent say he isn’t)
• Not honest (36 percent say he is, 51 percent say he isn’t)
• Indifferent to “people like me” (36 percent of people think he cares about them, 52 percent don’t)

and

• Unstable (37 percent say he’s stable, 51 percent say he isn’t)

Imagine what the polls that he doesn’tpublicize say! (They say the same thing.)

Today’s meter level is unchanged because Trump’s broad unpopularity, though amusing to “drill down” on, has been established for a while now.

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